Visualized Tiers and Ranks for Week 8: Dissenting Opinions

I look  forward to Mike’s weekly visualized tiers and rankings post for two reason: 1) it’s an incredibly helpful reference tool, and 2) I get to be the nitpicking asshole who disagrees with him.  Accordingly, today’s post discusses some of the most underrated and overrated players going into week 8.

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UP

PG: Jameer Nelson (3rd tier, 3 games)

Jameer Nelson has been white hot lately, clearly he’s determined to make me look bad for criticizing him. Over the last 14 days he ranks 21st overall in Yahoo! leagues, largely due to a tear that began when Oladipo joined Orlando’s starting five.  Arron Afflalo’s move to the 3 position has allowed Nelson to thrive next to the rookie phenom and capture the interest of potential trade deadline contenders.  Subsequently, Jameer’s been playing a ton of minutes (40 last night), and I’d expect this heavy usage to continue until he’s dealt.

Nelson’s averages from that past two weeks:

• 42%fg, 79%ft, 3.2 3ptm, 15.7pts, 3.2rbd, 6.2ast, 1.8stl, 0.3blk, 2.0to

This output is on par with most 2nd tier point guards, including Jrue Holiday and Goran Dragic. Jameer is locked into big minutes and has been cooking with gas recently — view him as a 2nd tier PG this week, especially with mushy Utah and Sacto defenses on the horizon.

PF: Amir Johnson (4th tier, 3 games)

The Rudy Gay trade completely ignited Amir Johnson, the hottest player in the NBA over the past two weeks —  he’s shooting a ridiculous 71% from the floor. Impressively, Amir’s been this efficient despite taking 12.5 shots and scoring 20 points per game; maybe Toronto moved Gay in order to unleash Amir Johnson. If he continues to play around 30+ minutes a night, Johnson — a career 58% shooter — could be set for a full-blown breakout.

Johnson’s averages from the previous 2 weeks:

• 71%fg, 87%ft, 0.2 3ptm, 20pts, 9rbd, 1ast, 0.7stl, 1.8blks, 1.7to

To put things in perspective: Wilt Chamberlin shot 73% from the floor in 1972, a mark that still stands as the most efficient NBA season ever. Obviously Amir will cool off eventually, but as long as he’s shooting like Wilt Chamberlin why not roll with him.

Conveniently, Amir also plays excellent defense — he’s blocked at least one shot in six consecutive games and ranks tenth in blocks over the last two weeks.

Although Johnson qualifies as a ‘sell high’ candidate, I’d probably hang on to him for his tremendous upside. After all, somebody’s got to pick up all those shots Rudy Gay put down when he left.

The anti-Dwight Howard

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Down

PG: Patrick Beverley (3rd tier, 3 games)

I actually think Beverley is a very good NBA player, but he just doesn’t bring enough to the table to qualify as a worthwhile fantasy asset. It’s common knowledge by now that he’s an excellent defender, but Beverly’s anemic offensive game pisses away nearly all of his upside. He can’t score and he doesn’t make plays; with Lin set to return soon, I don’t think Beverley is even worth owning.  Check out his averages from the previous 2 weeks:

• 41%fg, 71%ft, 0.9 3ptm, 9.4pts, 4.7rbd, 2.1ast, 1.7stl, 0.4blk, 1.1to

I promise you can find a better option at PG.

Evidently Jamal is a team player

SG: Jamal Crawford (2nd tier, 4 games)

Jamal Crawford has always been able to heat up like a microwave and pour it in; he’s lightning in a bottle — the perfect 6th man. In his younger days I loved owning Crawford because he was a born scorer and a sneaky source of assists.  But now that he’s slowed down a bit, Crawford’s really just a scorer whose upside is limited to free throw shooting, scoring, and three pointers. Below are Jamal’s numbers from the last 2 weeks:

• 43%fg, 81%ft, 1.9 3ptm, 16pts, 2.3rbd, 2.5ast, 0.7stl, 0.2blk, 2.0to

Does Crawford still have fantasy value? Sure, probably. But is he really more valuable than 3rd tier guys such as Victor Oladipo, Joe Johnson, or Eric Gordon? Hell no, not even close.

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 PF: Kenneth Faried (3rd tier, 3 games)

The Manimal has been one of the most disappointing players of 2013 so far; overrated hardly describes Faried’s status, as he frustratingly under-performs on a nightly basis.  Despite a wealth of opportunity and physical talent, Faried has only managed these nauseating averages in the past two weeks:

• 2 weeks: 50%fg, 44%ft, 0 3ptm, 8.1pts, 7.0rbd, 0.3ast, 0.4stl, 1blk, 1to
• season:53%fg, 57%ft, 0 3ptm, 10pts, 8.6rbd, 0.8 ast, 0.7stl, 0.8blk, 1.1to

Faried’s minutes have dipped below 21 per game recently, and, frankly, he doesn’t deserve more playing time. There’s simply no excuse for going 43%  from the line — seriously Ken, you’re a fucking professional. From a fantasy perspective, he’s a mediocre defender and a lousy scorer; it’s a shame to see so much upside go to waste.  I’d take 4th tier PF’s such as: Tristan Thompson,  Amir Johnson, and Taj Gibson over Faried.

Kenneth Faried is determined to make Nuggets fans miss the GOAT Javale McGee

The Circle of Trust: Oladipo, IT2, Bargs, and TT

“Ever-newer waters flow on those who step into the same rivers.”  -Heraclitus

Legendary pre-socratic philosopher (and apparent fantasy basketball sage) Heraclitus has enjoyed millenniums of fame for basically saying that ‘the only constant is change’ in an excessively verbose manner.  Although my classical Greek history is a bit foggy, I’m fairly certain that Heraclitus was commenting on the dynamic nature of fantasy basketball.  He alone realized that savvy pretend NBA general managers must maintain unwavering vigilance, always searching for (the sometimes subtle) opportunities that arise from the universe’s natural flux; and 2,500 years later, Heraclitus’s work still heavily influences my fantasy basketball theory.  So in his honor, today’s post will discuss players who’ve recently gained my confidence and solidified themselves as universally trustworthy fantasy assets. The following discussion aims to demonstrate and understand the elevation of four players who I previously regarded suspiciously as potential liabilities.

Victor  Oladipo:

It’s officially Dipo time in Orlando. Since his first start a few weeks ago, Victor Oladipo has been producing like a top tier scoring guard — his stats from last two weeks are easily on par with some of the best two guards in the game. Check out his production over the last 14 days:

• Victor Oladipo: 44%fg, 76%ft, 0.7 3ptm, 16.1pts, 4.6 ast, 5.7rbd, 1.7stl, 1.1blk, 3.1to

• Monta Ellis: 43%fg, 92%ft, 0.7 3ptm, 17.4pts, 6.1, 3.3rbd, 1.6stl, 0.3blk, 2.9to

• Evan Turner: 46%fg, 81%ft, 1.3 3ptm,17.5pts, 4.5ast, 5.7rbd, 1.3stl, 0blk, 3.3to

That’s some pretty fantastic company for a rookie who literally just got his feet wet.  Oladipo is unbelievably athletic and explosive on both sides of the ball — he brings much needed energy to a rebuilding Orlando team. Initially I was concerned that Orlando’s desire to move their older players would limit Victor’s fantasy potential, but his recent play has largely quelled my concerns.  Oladipo has already demonstrated that he’s one of the best defensive guards in the NBA: ranking 7th in steals and 3rd in blocks among all SG’s over the past two weeks.  The scary part is that he’s still developing as a professional — his production is already comparable with the likes of stars such as Monta Ellis, just imagine what he might be doing February.  At this point Victor’s only real downside is that he tends to rack up turnovers — but you should be punting this category anyway, so who gives a shit?

However, as a long-time fan and fantasy owner, I’m worried about Jameer Nelson’s value.  He should absolutely lose his starting job — the Magic need Oladipo on the ball as often as possible. Nevertheless the Magic need to trade Nelson, which should keep him productive enough to own in most leagues. Both Jameer and his fantasy owners would likely benefit from a trade.

 

Isaiah Thomas:

People have been bitching vociferously about Greivis Vasquez’s disastrous startin NorCal; and with good reason too — he’s easily been one of the biggest disappointments of 2013.  The Kings, like many fantasy managers, paid a pretty steep price for a guy struggling to post 10/5 (and not much else) with regularity; very disappointing output considering Vasquez’s success in New Orleans. Maybe even more surprising though, is the way that Isaiah Thomas has quietly but masterfully ran the point in Sacto.  While you’d expect a name like Isaiah Thomas to generate a bit more fanfare than it has, his recent production has been objectively outstanding. Compare Thomas’s season stats against the league’s other top PG’s — the numbers speak for themselves:

• Isaiah Thomas: 46%fg, 86%ft, 1.5 3ptm, 17.8pts, 4.9ast, 2.3rbd, 1.4stl, 0blk, 2.6to

• Eric Bledsoe: 49%fg, 80%ft, 1.2 3ptm, 18.6pts, 6.0ast, 4.0rbd, 1.5stl, 0.2blk, 3.5to

• Kyle Lowry: 41%fg, 79%ft, 2.2 3ptm, 14.3pts, 6.6ast, 3.5rbd, 1.7stl, 0.2blk, 2.3to

I actually think Vasquez is a quality ball-player, but IT2’s exceptional performance basically made Vasquez expendable.  Maybe the most impressive thing about Thomas, though, is his ability to produce like an all-star even while coming off the bench as part of a timeshare. IT2 has been a top 10 overall fantasy PG as a backup.  Forward thinking managers that had enough moxie to invest in him on draft day can count on Thomas to keeping paying dividends throughout the season.

Welcome to the family, Isaiah.

**About 20 minutes after I finished writing this post, Toronto traded Rudy Gay to Sacto for Vasquez and some role players. Both IT2 and Boogie should benefit from Gay’s arrival. Thomas is on the verge of becoming an elite point guard, and suddenly the Kings are one of my favorite squads on paper.**

Isaiah celebrating his choice to not draft Greivis Vasquez in the 7th round

 

Andrea Bargnani:

Andrea Bargnani deals with a ton of criticism, especially now that he’s in New York. I think people give him a hard time because he never really lived up to the expectations that come with being drafted first overall. Sure he was terrible last season, but it wasn’t that long ago when Bargs was a bonafide fantasy stud: in 2010-11 he posted 21/5 with some threes and decent defensive stats to boot.

Since filling in for the injured Tyson Chandler, Bargnani has been one of best players in New York; in fact Bargs is on pace for his best season ever. Fantasy owners everywhere have doubtlessly enjoyed his improvements in shooting efficiency and defense — only Serge Ibaka has blocked more shots in the past two weeks. But more than anything, I think Bargnani has benefited from playing alongside Carmelo Anthony — he’s clearly more effective as a secondary scoring option.  

Andrea has been particularly hot lately, posting production on par with great Dirk Nowitzki’s over the last two week; compare:

• Andrea Bargnani: 46%fg, 82%ft, 1.0 3ptm, 18.0pts, 6.3rbd, 1.5ast, 0.7stl, 2.7blk, 1.0to

• Dirk Nowitzki: 53%fg, 87%ft, 1.1 3pm, 21.9pts, 5.1brd, 3.3ast, 0.9stl, 1.0blk, 1.1to

It seems like a change of scenery was exactly what the doctor ordered for Bargs. I think his skill set meshes nicely with New York’s roster, and Mike Woodson would have to completely lose his mind for Bargnani to lose a significant amount of shots — they really are that bad in NYC. 

So long as Chandler doesn’t vulture too many of Bargs’ blocks, I expect him to keep on rolling along.  Nevertheless, fantasy pundits everywhere have begun peddling Andrea as a ‘sell high’ target with Chandler’s return approaching. I, however, am a proud contrarian who salivates uncontrollably when this type of groupthink situation occurs. If you’re a fellow Bargnani believer, the time for action is now.

Andrea Bargnani, smooth as silk

Tristan Thompson:

With the addition of Andrew Bynum and number one overall pick Anthony Bennett, I was leery of Thompson earlier this season. Nevertheless Tristan has continued to improve his game and has emerged as a truly exceptional rebounder. Over the past two weeks he’s averaged 11 points and 13 boards plus a bit of defense in about 32 minutes per game.  And while he’s scoring at roughly the same rate as last season, his shooting has been less efficient — down from 49% to 43%.  But if Thompson can somehow find a groove, and sink about 50% of his shots, 15/10 nights will become his nightly routine.

Here’s a quick comparison between Thompson’s and Kenneth Faried’s season averages so far:

• Tristan Thompson: 43%fg, 72%ft, 0 3ptm, 11.5pts, 10.4rbd, 0.8ast, 0.7stl, 0.6blk, 1.5to

• Kenneth Faried: 55%fg, 61%ft, 0 3ptm, 10.2pts, 8.6rbd, 1.0ast, 0.7stl, 0.7blk, 1.1to

Again, efficiency is the key for Tristan Thompson’s fantasy value.  That said, it’ll be interesting to see whether there are enough minutes to go around in Cleveland’s frontcourt; I’d wager that Varajao’s age and injury risk eventually makes him the odd man out.